Turkey

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to Oxford Business Group about his country’s economic rise

Despite having to weather a combination of regional instability, domestic volatility and a hotly contested election season last year, Turkey’s economy began 2014 with a surprisingly strong performance.

The recent move by the European Central Bank (ECB) to loosen monetary policy, which included cutting the deposit interest rate to a landmark -0.1%, looks set to provide a welcome boost to both Turkey’s money markets and its broader economy.

The Ankara government has played down forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and decisions of some ratings agencies to lower their expectations for the Turkish economy this year, saying recent reports did not take into account a number of favourable factors that will fuel growth.

Turkey’s powerhouse automotive industry is expected to experience a downturn in 2014, as higher interest rates and a slowing economy cause domestic buyers to hit the brakes on spending. The outlook is likely to remain flat for the rest of the year, though solid exports may help offset some of the localised cooling in the market.

As it looks to have its 18-year-old Customs union with Europe rewritten in mid-2014, Turkey says it is at a disadvantage under some terms of the agreement, in particular through trade pacts between the EU and third parties.