The Middle East Environment

Near-term sentiment is on the rise among Dubai’s business leaders, with the IMF forecasting a healthy GDP growth rate of 4.2% in 2019 for the emirate. While not as exposed as some of its regional neighbours to the effects of fluctuating commodities prices in recent times, Dubai nevertheless stands to benefit from the knock-on effects of higher prices over the last year.

Despite its diversified economy, Bahrain has nonetheless faced pressures in recent years as a result of the 2014-15 drop in global oil prices. However, a multibillion-dollar aid package from other Gulf states and an accompanying fiscal adjustment plan, as well as growth following a partial oil price recovery and a major oil and gas discovery, offer hope for an economic turnaround in 2019.

Following the global oil price drop in 2014, Oman – like the other GCC states – is pushing ahead with its long-term national development plans that seek to diversify the economy.

As hydrocarbons forms the backbone of Kuwait’s economy, the resurgence in global commodity markets bodes well for the future and has led to a renewed sense of optimism. The recovering market is also supporting the government’s diversification efforts under the auspices of the Kuwait National Development Plan, or New Kuwait.

Sharjah has long played an important economic and cultural role in the UAE, and boasts one of the most diversified economies by regional standards, with no individual sector accounting for more than 20% of GDP.

As ongoing volatility continues to hamper growth in the region, Jordan has made significant progress in preserving macroeconomic stability and reducing its fiscal deficit in the past few years. Efforts to the fulfill the stipulations of a $723m extended fund facility agreement with the IMF continue, and the government may need to pursue more widespread reforms to increase income tax revenues and limit tax avoidance so as to sustain recent momentum.