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With the world’s seventh-largest population, which continues to grow rapidly its current 170m, agriculture is key part of Nigeria’s economy. After decades of declining production, trends have been moving in the opposite direction in the past several years as overall food supply rises. Guided by the Agricultural Transformation Agenda, which was launched in 2011 as part of a push to overhaul productivity and output in the sector, short-term goals have included eliminating market distortions and improving transparency while delivering more and better inputs to farmers. The medium-term goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in a number of key staples, such as rice, and to develop the agribusiness sector and export markets. Given the successes achieved so far, the agricultural sector is poised to reinforce its role as a key economic contributor. This chapter contains interviews with Akinwumi Adesina, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, and Johan Steyn, Managing Director Middle East and Africa, Cargill.

Upgrading and developing new transport infrastructure is essential to unlocking Nigeria’s undeniable growth potential. Given that state coffers are strained, and multiple sectors are competing for funding, the government is looking to reduce public control of its transport network and hand over development, management and maintenance responsibilities to the private sector. The port concessions show the PPP model can work and demonstrate the possible efficiency and performance gains from privatisation. Across all modes of transport, a mismatch between demand projections and current capacity is evident, making a strong case for interested bidders, given the right regulatory framework and operating conditions. Prospective investors will be eagerly waiting to see how the transition impacts the passage of key bills – like the NTP – and the confirmation of the revised roles and remits of the various regulatory bodies and state institutions operating in the sector. This chapter contains interviews with Uche Orji, Managing Director and CEO, Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), and Charles Brewer, Managing Director for Sub-Saharan Africa, DHL Express.

The lack of power has been among the biggest obstacles to economic growth, and Nigeria is in the midst of a long and complex effort to increase electricity supply by more than fivefold by 2020, from the current level of about 3400 MW to 20,000 MW. The immediate result of this is a spike in demand for capital to rehabilitate existing capacity and add new supply, making foreign investment – through tenders and ancillary initiatives like the US Power Africa programme – crucial to the success of this reform effort. As of early 2015, the market had entered into what the road map calls a “transitional electricity market”. Over the next several years, two government-owned firms will act as intermediaries for transactions in the marketplace. Both bodies are temporary actors in the market and will be closed once the electricity sector can stand on its own. For now, their presence is deemed necessary to facilitate the signing of long-term contractual relationships between parties along the value chain, and to limit defaults and volatility. This chapter contains interviews with Chinedu Nebo, Minister of Power, and Paul Hinks, CEO, Symbion Power

Still Africa’s largest oil producer, with an industry that in past decades has fuelled the growth of what is now its largest economy, Nigeria has the biggest reserves on the continent. Local operators are expanding their share of production, while domestic services companies are boosting capacity to meet local content requirements. Yet the sector faces steep challenges, from policy uncertainty amid looming legislative reform to output disruptions due to unrest in the Niger Delta, the heart of its producing region. These obstacles have only been exacerbated by falling crude prices, which halved in the second half of 2014. Although oil has traditionally dominated Nigeria’s production mix, natural gas looks set to gain more ground in the coming years, thanks largely to the forecast increase in demand from the recently privatised electricity sector and investments by state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in gas aggregation and transport infrastructure, which are strengthening supply links to power plants. This chapter contains interviews with George Osahon, Director, Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR); Ernest Nwapa, Executive Secretary, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB); and Adewale Tinubu, Group CEO, Oando.

With a growing population of 170m and penetration still low, Nigeria’s insurance sector has considerable potential in demographic terms alone. At present, a large number of insurers compete for what business is available, creating a highly fragmented market. Acquisitions are an increasingly common mode of entry for foreign investors – a trend that is likely to continue. In the near term, attempts at better enforcement of laws and regulations are likely, as is the possible scaling-up of microinsurance and the introduction of sharia-compliant products. Despite shortcomings in enforcement and financial reporting, the insurance sector continues to post double-digit growth, with a bright future ahead given demographic trends. This chapter contains an interview with Fola Daniel, Commissioner for Insurance, National Insurance Commission (NAICOM)

Following two years of rapid, double-digit gains in its equity market and strong foreign investor appetite in fixed income, Nigeria’s capital markets entered 2014 with the wind at their back, thanks in part to the announcement of a favourable reweighting of the MSCI Frontier Index in 2013. As the portfolio of investable instruments continues to grow with the launch of new platforms, Nigerian authorities are seeking to further deepen Africa’s third-largest financial markets. Indeed, new products, along with more liquidity, will be needed if the Nigerian Stock Exchange is to reach its goal of a $1trn capitalisation by 2016. The Nigeria stock market is poised for stronger growth throughout 2015. The peaceful conclusion to the March 2015 elections should help rebuild investor confidence, both in the stock market and the wider economy, although depressed oil prices continue to be a reason for caution. Ongoing structural reforms are set to foster better capitalised players that will drive the expansion of penetration locally and further attract global frontier market funds. This chapter contains interviews with Oscar N Onyema, CEO, The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), and Wale Agbeyangi, Managing Director, Cordros Capital.