Tobago sees capacity for growth in tourism, construction and industry

Tobago has a history of colonial rule by a succession of different European powers, including Spain, France and Britain. In 1802 Trinidad and Tobago came under British rule. It was not until 1889 that a British government grouped the two islands together under a single colonial administration. T&T sought and achieved independence in 1962, and gained status as a republic in 1976. A significant proportion of the population has, however, consistently sought greater autonomy for Tobago within the existing constitution of the twin-island republic, and from time to time a smaller group on Tobago has argued for full independence.

Evolving Local Government

After independence, the initial approach by the central government based in Port of Spain, Trinidad, was to consider Tobago an administrative and electoral region of the country. Consequently, the island elects two members of the 41-member lower house, representing Tobago East and Tobago West. How Tobago has been administered, however, has changed over time. Prior to 1980, this was done solely through the Ministry of Tobago Affairs. Following Tobagonian demands for greater self-rule, an elected Tobago House of Assembly (THA) was created in 1980 for the purpose of “making better provision for the administration of Tobago and for matters therein”.

The THA, which still has relatively limited powers, has a legislative arm and an executive arm. The legislative arm consists of 12 elected members who sit in plenary session or in select committees. Members of the assembly server four-year terms, although the body has the power to dissolve itself and call early elections. A presiding officer and a clerk of the assembly support the legislative function. There are also four councillors, usually three representing the majority and one from the minority. The executive arm is led by the chief secretary, who is elected from among the 12 assemblymen, and an Executive Council. The council works through 10 divisions with responsibility for specific areas of local affairs, such as agriculture, marine affairs, the environment, education, finance and tourism, among others.

Over the years, local parties have pressed for greater autonomy, including the Democratic Action Congress, which held a majority of THA seats in the 1980s, and the Tobago Organisation of the People, which gained four seats in the 2009 elections. In the last elections, held in 2013, the Peoples’ National Movement (PNM) swept the board, taking all 12 seats. The PNM went on to win the national elections in September 2015. As a result, both the THA’s chief secretary, Orville London, and the prime minister of T&T, Keith Rowley, are from the same party. They are also both Tobagonians by birth.

The Tobago-based PNM believes the island requires a greater degree of self-rule. After winning the September 2015 national elections, Rowley said his government would set up a joint select committee to look into granting internal self-government to Tobago. “As a Tobagonian I have a duty to ensure that that process is completed in the shortest possible time, where T&T gives Tobago the maximum autonomy that Tobago could have in the unitary state of T&T,” he said in October 2015, in Tobago’s capital, Scarborough.

Demographic Background

According to the Central Statistical Office (CSO), T&T had a population of 1.3m as of 2011, with Tobago accounting for around 61,000 people, or 4.6% of the total combined population of T&T. The population of Tobago grew by 12.6% between the census in 2000 and the most recent census in 2011. In fact, since 1990 the population of Tobago has been growing faster than the combined total for T&T. The smaller island’s share of the country’s population has increased, but only marginally so. In 1960 it stood at around 4%, before dipping to 3.8% in 1980 and rebounding to 4.3% in 2000. Tobago is divided into seven parishes, with the most densely populated being St Andrew and St Patrick. Young adults are an important component of the local population. Those aged between 20 and 29 years are numerically the largest age group at 10,366 inhabitants, while the median age is 28.1 years, according to the CSO’s Tobago Social and Economic Statistical Digest 2008-15. The dependency ratio, which is the share of the population that is not of working age (under 15 and over 65 years), was 48% in 2011, up from 41.9% in 2000. The largest ethnic group was Tobagonians of African descent (85.3%), followed by mixed African/East Indian (4.3%), other mixed-race individuals (4.2%), East Indian (2.5%) and Tobagonians of European descent (0.7%).

Strong Public Sector

As per provisional data from the THA’s Finance and Enterprise Development Division, Tobago’s GDP was TT$1.93bn ($297.2m) in 2015. This data showed a significant increase in the island’s GDP in recent years: up 20.8% in 2013, followed by a 4.9% increase in 2014 and a 1.4% increase in 2015. In 2014 the activities of local government accounted for around 48.3% of GDP, followed by the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors, with 23.8% among all four. Distribution and restaurants accounted for 8.5% of GDP, construction and quarrying 6.1%, transport, storage and communication 4.6%, and hotel and guest houses 2.9%. Cutting across these sectors, tourism remains the dominant industry on the island, generating demand for a wide range of goods and services. According to the THA, in 2014 Tobago’s labour force was estimated at 34,075, around 2.7% of whom were unemployed, which was a reduction on the previous year’s 3.8% unemployment rate. Most employment was concentrated in community, social and personal services (40.2%), construction (22.7%), wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels (15.5%), transport, storage and communication (7.2%), and the financial sector (5%). Just under 12% of the island’s labour force had a university degree. As of the fourth quarter of 2015, Tobago’s unemployment rate stood at 3.5% and THA’s operations accounted for around 55% of the people employed on the island, according to the CSO.

Medium-Term Strategy

Tobago’s budget for 2016/17 was announced by Joel Jack, the THA’s secretary of finance and enterprise development, in June 2016. He noted that the twin-island nation as a whole faced increased uncertainty because of the sharp fall in international oil and gas prices, but argued that “increased investment in the Tobago economy especially in the tourism sector could go a long way in helping to stem the decline in national output.”

Jack added that because of the impact on central government revenues, international credit ratings agencies Moody’s and S&P’s had downgraded T&T’s credit rating, and the THA also had its rating cut “owing to the strong linkage between the operating institutional framework of the THA and the central government”. Jack announced that the THA would be requesting an TT$5.3bn ($816.2m) allocation from the central government, including TT$3.2bn ($492.8m) for recurrent expenditure and TT$2bn ($308m) for capital expenditure, with the balance going towards to local government’s employment programmes.

The THA’s medium-term strategy is set out in the Comprehensive Economic Development Plan 2013-17, also known as CEDP 2.0. The plan sets out a vision for Tobago’s future that includes progress towards a diversified and self-sustaining economy, a sustainable environment, high-quality health care and education provision, and an improved transportation system, among other goals. The overall aim of CEDP 2.0 is described as “transform[ing] and diversify[ing] the Tobago economy such that it is better able to adjust to rapid changes in the national and international economies by producing products and services in which it can retain a competitive edge”.

A Driving Force

Tourism remains the strongest single economic activity in Tobago, as the 300-sq-km island offers beautiful beaches, tropical forests and a wide range of leisure activities. Attractions include the Tobago Main Ridge Forest Reserve, a candidate for UNESCO World Heritage status, and Pigeon Point Beach, which has been ranked among the world’s best beaches by media outlets such as CNN and the UK’s The Guardian. CEDP 2.0 calls for Tobagonian tourism to be rebranded, as well as the addition of an extra 1500 hotel rooms, improved training for tourism staff and the reconstruction of the ANR Robinson International Airport. The existing stock of hotel rooms is estimated at just over 4000.

“Under the Tourism Accommodation Upgrade Programme, the THA has been incentivising hotels to enhance their existing room stock and add high-quality rooms. Extensive upgrades have been under way at the Mt. Irvine Bay hotel, the Sanctuary Resort and Manta Lodge and are expected to deliver about 80 high-quality rooms. Discussions are also ongoing for improvements at the Magdalena Grand,” the THA’s London told OBG.

In his June 2015 budget speech, Jack had noted direct weekly flights from Europe to Tobago were due to increase to six during the 2015 and 2016 Northern Hemisphere winters. These include two weekly flights from the UK by British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, two flights from Scandinavia and one from Frankfurt by Condor Airlines. Efforts to diversify the tourism market include the introduction of a flight from Brazil by Gol Airlines, which started in January 2015.

Aviation Services

In May 2011 the central government committed to building an entirely new airport in Tobago at a cost of TT$500m ($77m), but a programme of minor renovations and repairs had followed instead. In the 2016 budget statement, Jack reiterated the urgency to upgrade the ANR Robinson International Airport terminal facilities, given that the terminals prevented an optimal flow of passengers and increasing direct airlift from a broader range of originating markets. He noted that the THA had “received a commitment from the new central government administration that the design and construction of a new airport terminal is likely to begin in the next fiscal year” and stressed his confidence over this new commitment.

International air passenger arrivals to Tobago fell by 14.6% to 28,105 in 2015, down from 32,904 passengers in 2014. The fall was partly attributed to the April 2015 end of a charter service by UK airline Monarch. Domestic air passenger arrivals, or flights from Port of Spain, were nevertheless up by 4.1% to 482,957. Taken together, total arrivals by air to Tobago rose by 2.9% to 511,062. Inter-island ferry arrivals, meanwhile, dropped by 3.4% to 466,969.

Combined hotel and guest house occupancy rates averaged 42% in the first 11 months of 2015, down 44% from 2014. According to John Jefferis, owner of the Coco Reef Resorts chain, air connectivity and destination marketing are the two keys to pushing up hotel occupancy rates. Jefferis told OBG he was targeting a 76% year-round occupancy rate at his hotel on the island. “Over the years, and I have had the hotel for 20 years, over that time I have always found that the THA has been focused, efficient and effective in terms of getting tourists to the island,” he said.

Securing Resources

One significant problem has been the consistency of water supply. For T&T as a whole, dams and reservoirs are operated by the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA), which usually provides enough to cover daily usage of around 224m gallons. In Tobago well water supply is usually enhanced by surface water capture at various facilities, including the Hillsborough Reservoir. However, droughts in recent years have seen water levels fall, and water supply has been restricted. In April 2016 WASA told the THA it was activating two new wells, drilling others and planning a tender for a desalination plant. The plant, conceived as a medium-term solution to water scarcity, would be built at the Cove Eco-Industrial and Business Park. A major infrastructure development was the completion of the Shaw Park Cultural Complex in early 2015. The centre, which has capacity to seat 5000, is designed to host musical and theatrical performances, conferences, sports events and Carnival celebrations.

Tobago is seeking to promote new investment in the sector. In February 2016 executives from the Jamaica-based Sandals Resorts chain visited the island and met with local officials, including London and Tracy Davidson-Celestine, deputy chief secretary of the THA. In the 2016 budget speech Jack said that he was anticipating an expansion of over 1000 high-quality rooms in the next three years “with Sandals Resorts International providing at least two-thirds of these”.

Agro-Processing

In line with its diversification strategy, the government has been seeking to stimulate the agriculture sector. Current initiatives include an upgrade of Hope Farm Genetic Centre, a government-owned facility that aims to improve local livestock through new breeding techniques. It also plans to restart milk production to supply local schools. Another initiative seeks to develop sustainable commercial production of vegetables and root crops through a pilot project, Agro Park, to be developed in partnership with the private sector using government-owned Friendship Estate land. New fishing facilities at Castara and Charlotteville are due to be completed by the end of 2016. Carl Murray, a technical officer at the THA’s Division of Agriculture, told OBG the government had identified some 50 ha of land that could be brought back into production and would be piloting orchard crops, such as citrus and mangoes, and root crops like cassava. The aim was to develop crops for export or use by local hotels, increase local food security and agro-processing, and raise yields by using modern agricultural technology. The emphasis would be on developing niche products and eco-foods that could be branded in a manner consistent with Tobago’s marketing as an environmentally attractive destination. Murray gave the example of local goat and sheep herders, who have a vibrant trade exporting live animals to Trinidad. Partly inspired by an initiative in Jamaica led by the Caribbean Agriculture Research and Development Institute, officials were looking at ways of supporting herders to increase value added and local processing.

Expansion In Health & Education 

Following the opening of a new hospital in Scarborough, the government is seeking to widen effective health care coverage by upgrading existing medical centres and building a new health centre in Moriah at an overall cost of TT$20m ($3.1m). The government is encouraging the establishment of a local affiliate of an established university to give students wider experience and cater to specialised areas of research. In June 2016 Jack announced the creation of a tertiary institution comprising the Tobago Hospitality and Tourism Institute, the Kendal Farm School and the Buccoo Reef Trust - Tobago Marine Research Centre, focused on environmental and marine sciences.

Investment Plans For Construction

Local construction activity in 2016 will be driven by the Public Sector Investment Programme 2016, which calls for a sum of TT$509m ($78.4m) to be spent, of which 47.2% will be put toward economic infrastructure, 36.2% for social infrastructure and 16.5% on public administration. A number of the projects involve a range of construction activities, including roads, drainage and agricultural irrigation schemes, electrification and street lighting. In April 2016 the THA announced the island’s TT$63m ($9.7m) road repair and resurfacing programme was progressing, with three road bridges soon to go out to tender. Meanwhile, a total of TT$51.7m ($8m) will be invested in building new public sector homes to boost the island’s housing stock. The THA is also investigating options to overcome a major transport bottleneck – the lack of a commercial port with container-handling facilities. “We are exploring the possibility of public-private partnerships, and one of the projects identified under that type of initiative is the expansion of the port,” Tricia Beckles, sector development manager of the THA’s Business Development Unit, told OBG. “It is not just a question of having a commercial port, we are also looking into a marina, because fishing is also a big part of what we do.”

Outlook

While efforts to diversify the Tobagonian economy continue, tourism will remain one of the main drivers of economic development. Jefferis told OBG he was optimistic for the future of the sector. He was encouraged by an agreement to open a direct Thomas Cook flight from Manchester to Tobago in the 2016 Northern Hemisphere winter, as well as an extra Condor flight from Munich, which is due to commence in the winter of 2016. Frederica Brooks-Adams, director of tourism at the THA Division of Tourism, said that the new flights would increase arrival capacity by 12,436 passengers per year, making her “quietly optimistic” about an improvement in air arrivals during the 2016 winter season. “I am sure that with the restoration of visitor sights and attractions, and the updating of hotel rooms, we are taking the right steps to ensure that Tobago’s tourism product is developed in a sustainable manner,” Brooks-Adams told OBG.