General elections are set to be held in Trinidad and Tobago in autumn 2015

Trinidad and Tobago can be described as an imperfect but vibrant democracy. While there are different assessments of the strength of its institutions, there is unanimity on the value of its democratic tradition. It has had uninterrupted democratic rule since independence in 1962. T&T’s reputation for free and robust debate will be on display in 2015, a general election year. At stake are 41 seats in the House of Representatives. On June 13, 2015 the Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar announced September 7, 2015 as the election day. Under the constitution, the government was required to hold them before September 17.

The campaign is expected to be a confrontation between the prime minister’s People’s Partnership (PP) alliance (of which her United National Congress, or UNC, is the biggest member) and the opposition People’s National Movement (PNM), led by Keith Rowley. Initial polls have suggested it will be a close-run race. Several issues are expected to figure prominently, including the state of the economy, crime and corruption, and integrity in the public sector.

Westminister-Model Republic

Although it is strongly influenced by the British political system, T&T is nevertheless a republic. The president performs the role of head of state, while the government is led by the prime minister. The president is elected for five-year terms by Parliament, which consists of a Senate and a House of Representatives. The prime minister, who is appointed by the president, must be an elected member of the House of Representatives, and is usually the leader of the majority party in the House.

Members of the lower house are elected by universal adult suffrage every five years, while senators are appointed by the president on the advice of the prime minister and the leader of the opposition. The president also has the right to appoint a number of independent senators at his or her own discretion. A total of 16 senators are appointed on the advice of the prime minister, six on the advice of the leader of the opposition, and nine by the president, whose brief is to select non-party political independents who are representative of civil society. The island of Tobago was granted internal self-government in 1987, and has a separate House of Assembly with 12 elected members and four appointed councillors.

Elections & Rebellions

The first elections were held under British colonial rule in 1925, to choose seven out of 13 members to form a Legislative Council (the others being nominated directly by the governor). In those elections the franchise was limited to men over 21 and women over 30, who also had to meet certain income, residence and property-ownership qualifications. Universal adult suffrage was introduced in 1946.

T&T’s history has been marked by long periods of stable and peaceful political life, punctuated by short and sometimes violent moments of rebellion and disorder. Society in turn has reacted to these outbreaks of protest with a process of change and adaptation.

One of the more significant protests came in 1937 when TUB Butler, a trade union activist and immigrant from Grenada, led a series of demonstrations that are regarded as the foundation of the modern trade union movement in the country. He was imprisoned from 1937 to 1939, and re-arrested for the duration of the Second World War. However, on his release in 1945 he founded the British Empire Citizens’ and Workers’ Home Rule Party, one of the precursors of the independence movement. The party received most votes in the 1950 general elections, but Butler was denied the chief minister role, which went to Albert Gomes.

People's National Movement

The 1956 elections saw the emergence of the party that was to lead T&T to independence from Britain: the PNM. With a largely Afro-Trinidadian support base, under the leadership of Eric Williams the PNM won every general election between 1956 and 1986. Independence was achieved after the failure of a British political project to create a West Indies Federation. When Jamaica withdrew from that plan, Williams signalled his rejection of any smaller federated political entity. Accordingly, T&T negotiated its own full independence from Britain, which was achieved in August 1962. Queen Elizabeth II remained as titular head of state until August 1976, when T&T became a republic, and Sir Ellis Clarke, the governor-general, became the first president.

Economic Troubles & Black Power

The newly independent country faced a number of growing economic problems in the 1960s. These included low prices for sugar and oil exports, which coincided with growing militancy within the Oilfield Workers’ Trade Union. Unemployment rose in the late 1960s. The PNM government responded by launching a development plan and buying out the local subsidiary of British Petroleum. Over time, however, Williams had become more withdrawn and less tolerant of dissent within the PNM and in the country generally. By April 1970 he had not given a press conference for five years.

Against the background of the deterioration of the economy, frustration with the PNM government and a rise in student militancy internationally, the late 1960s and early 1970s saw a new and disparate series of protests gather strength, generally known as the Black Power movement. A key player was the National Joint Action Committee, a political party that attributed the 14% unemployment rate to oppression by white capitalists against blacks (defined to include people of both African and East Indian descent). A 1970 survey had in fact found that 86% of business leaders were white. Demands by the protestors included action to reduce unemployment and foreign intervention in the economy. This was the most serious challenge faced by Williams in his long political career.

Unrest at the St Augustine campus of the University of the West Indies (UWI) gathered pace in 1970, following the arrest of West Indian students in Montreal, Canada, accused of occupying a computer centre. The government declared a state of emergency and 15 Black Power leaders were arrested, triggering a rebellion by some members of the army in the Teteron Barracks on the Chaguaramas Peninsula. The rebels took hostages but were surrounded and surrendered after five days. Political difficulties for the government continued, with the opposition boycotting the 1971 elections, leading to a PNM-dominated Parliament.

Petro-Dollars bring Prosperity

The 1973 Arab-Israeli war and subsequent action by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to sharply increase oil prices had a beneficial effect on T&T’s economy. High crude oil prices for most of the decade after 1973 increased government revenues, leading to higher salaries, a rise in employment levels and an improved standard of living for citizens. The government also became increasingly centralised and sharply expanded the role of the public sector.

With increased wealth came rising concerns over corruption. The PNM government faced allegations that officials had taken bribes connected to the purchase of Lockheed aircraft for the national airline BWIA and Sikorsky helicopters for the Ministry of National Security. It can be argued that this oil-based prosperity gave new impetus to the PNM government, but that when oil revenues began to dwindle again in 1982 and 1983, its electoral appeal was weakened once more.

National Alliance for Reconstruction

Prime Minister Williams died unexpectedly in office in 1981, victim of a diabetic fit. While the PNM remained in power after his death under his successor, George Chambers, the ruling party suffered its first electoral defeat in 1986 at the hands of a new multi-ethnic coalition, the National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR), led by Tobagonian ANR Robinson. Campaigning under the slogan “one love”, the NAR achieved a landslide victory, winning 33 of 36 seats in Parliament and 11 out of 12 seats in the Tobago House of Assembly. Voter turnout reached a 20-year high of 63%.

The new government was committed to divesting state-owned firms, reorganising the civil service and pursuing a programme of structural economic reforms, as a response to lower oil revenues. Despite some progress in stimulating growth and controlling inflation, it proved difficult to maintain the new government’s unity. By 1988 Basdeo Panday, regarded as a key representative of the Indo-Trinidadian community, had left the NAR to form a new opposition party, the UNC.

Jamaat Muslimeen Uprising

In July 1990 Jamaat Al Muslimeen, a Muslim group involved in criminal activity, seized government buildings and held members of Parliament and the prime minister hostage. The latter was shot in the leg but survived. Widespread looting and rioting in Port of Spain accompanied the attempted coup d’état. After five days of negotiations the rebels released the hostages and surrendered, in exchange for amnesty. The incident and the government’s response remain controversial in the country, with many questioning the decision to offer amnesty.

The rebel leader, Yasin Abu Bakr, and 113 other rebels were held in prison for two years, but released when the validity of the amnesty was upheld by the High Court in a 1992 ruling. The issue then went to the UK Privy Council on appeal. That court found the amnesty to be invalid; however it said it would be improper to re-arrest the conspirators. Analysts now agree that popular concern over what was perceived as the weak handling of the 1990 rebellion was a major factor in the NAR’s subsequent electoral defeat.

PNM Returns

The 1991 elections saw the return of the PNM under the leadership of Patrick Manning, with the party gaining 21 seats and pushing the UNC – still led by Basdeo Panday – into second position. Manning continued most of the economic policy reforms initiated by the NAR. But for much of the 1990s neither of the two major parties could establish a clear advantage over the other; each also struggled with internal divisions and defections. An attempt by Manning to strengthen his majority by calling early elections in 1995 backfired. The PNM and the UNC each secured 17 seats, but it was the UNC that was able to form a coalition with the NAR (which had two seats). Panday became the country’s first prime minister of Indo-Trinidadian descent. Under Panday’s administration there was significant investment in tourism, petrochemicals and natural gas. The UNC won new elections in 2000, but lost power in a corruption scandal in 2001, when three of its parliamentarians defected. New elections in December of that year were again a standoff with the PNM and the UNC each gaining 18 seats in Parliament. Controversially, Robinson, by then installed as president, asked the PNM’s Manning to form a government, despite the fact that the UNC actually achieved a larger proportion of the popular vote. Manning was unable to put together a working majority, forcing new elections to be called in 2002, in which the PNM gained 20 seats against 16 for the UNC.

The first decade of the 20th century saw crime and corruption feature more prominently on the political scene. In October 2005 some 10,000 people took part in a demonstration to protest rising crime rates. Former Prime Minister Panday of the UNC faced a series of investigations relating to corruption charges and alleged false financial declarations.

The People's Partnership Government

Elections held in May 2010 were contested by the PNM and by the PP coalition. The PP was formed by the UNC, now under the leadership of Persad-Bissessar; the new Congress of the People, a breakaway faction from the UNC, led by Winston Dookeran; the Tobago Organisation of the People; the National Joint Action Committee; and the Movement for Social Justice. Of the total votes cast, the PP gained 59.8%, against 39.5% for the PNM and less than 1% for a smaller party (New National Vision) and for independents. The turnout rate was just under 70%. The PP won an outright majority of 29 out of a possible 41 seats in the lower house, with the PNM taking the remaining 12 seats.

Democracy Rankings

According to the democracy index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), T&T ranked 48th out of 167 countries in 2013, putting it in a category which the publication described as “flawed democracies”. The country out-scored many of its regional neighbours also grouped in the same category, among them the Dominican Republic, Mexico and Colombia. The EIU recognised T&T as one of the oldest democracies in the region with continuous, democratically elected governments. Among its particular strengths, the EIU highlighted high scores for the electoral process and civil liberties. However, the country did less well under the participation and political culture headings as a result of what was described as “waning confidence in the main political parties”.

The US-based lobby group Freedom House scores countries on a scale of one to seven (where one represents the highest degree of freedom and seven the lowest) in two main categories: political rights and civil liberties. Based on an average of these two scores it divides the world into “free”, “partially free” and “not free”. In the 2015 report Freedom House assigned T&T a high score of two for both political rights and civil liberties, and classified it as a “free country”.

By way of comparison, Jamaica, which was also classified as free, scored an equal two for political rights but did less well in the area of civil liberties, scoring a three. Barbados, which was also considered free, did better with a score of one in both categories. While generally praising T&T’s record on freedoms, the organisation also noted that the country “suffers high-level corruption” and that the judiciary can be subject to “some political pressure”.

Another US-based lobby organisation, the Heritage Foundation – known for its conservative political positioning – ranked T&T 67th out of 178 in the world in 2015 with a score of 64.1 on an “economic freedom” scale of zero to 100. On a regional basis this places T&T behind Chile, Colombia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Jamaica and Costa Rica, but ahead of Panama, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Brazil. According to the Heritage Foundation, the 2015 score represented the second year of consecutive improvement, “with gains in the management of government spending, business freedom and freedom from corruption outweighing a loss in fiscal freedom”.

Strong Consensus

An opinion poll survey carried out before the 2010 general elections by the UWI under the Latin America Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) concluded that the Trinbagonian democracy in many respects remains strong and healthy. The report noted that “there was a strong sense of national pride amongst the citizens and in this multi-ethnic society, a majority of the respondents… indicated that there was unity in the population in spite of the challenges which face the country. In addition the survey revealed that adherence to the rule of law is generally supported among the populace.” The report concluded, “Democracy is considered as the only legitimate form of government for T&T and the existing constitutional mechanisms and procedures are unconditionally accepted by the citizenry.” It did, however, note areas of concern such as crime and corruption.

Multi-Ethnic Society

According to census data, the country’s two main ethnic groups, the Indo-Trinidadians and the Afro-Trinidadians, each represent roughly one-third of the population. More specifically, 34% of the population is of African descent, 35% is of Indian descent, 22% is mixed, 0.6% is white, and 0.3% is Chinese and other. Due to a higher birth rate, the Indo-Trinidadian community is expected to slowly edge towards numerical majority. Data on religious affiliation shows similar diversity. Respondents to the LAPOP survey were asked to describe their own religion or beliefs, and gave no less than 30 separate responses. The largest self-identified groups were Catholics, Hindus, Christians, Pentecostals, Muslims, Baptists and 7th Day Adventists, but there were many other smaller groups including Rastafarians, agnostics and atheists.

It is frequently claimed that the main political divides run along ethnic lines. While there is certainly an alignment of the Afro-Trinidadian community with the PNM and of the Indo-Trinidadian community with the UNC, the reality is perhaps more complex and dynamic. Referring to the PNM’s early days in the 1950s, Professor Selwyn Ryan has pointed out that its founder, Williams, was seeking to transcend narrower interests and build “a movement, a rally of all for all, a mobilisation cutting across race, religion, class and colour”. The same analyst recognises, however, that the PNM in its origins represented “the Afro-Creole masses, the mixed middle class, the Indian Christians, and the urban Muslims, and there was a need to establish a corresponding mass-based party for the Hindu element”. The UNC eventually emerged as a party more representative of the Indo-Trinidadian community, but also with a desire to appeal more widely. In the country’s recent political history various multi-ethnic alliances have formed, fragmented and then re-formed.

From a purely electoral perspective any party seeking to achieve a comfortable majority in Parliament needs to appeal beyond its own ethnic support base to attract cross-over voters. A related and interesting point is that while there have been frequent left-right policy disagreements and debates on issues including the relative importance of the public and private sectors, tax and spending levels, ideology in general definitely plays a more subordinate role in local politics. PNM and UNC governments have on the whole not fought each other on deeply ideological grounds. Local pollsters agree that the major determinants in the election will be personalities and proven track record.

Outlook

In keeping with T&T’s political traditions, the 2015 campaign is expected to be closely run, with loud and dramatic claims and counter-claims made between the rival contenders, but this should not distract attention away from what are seen as strong elements of continuity. The main parties’ detailed economic policy platforms had yet to be revealed at the time of writing, but they are market-friendly in their outlook. Both, for example, acknowledge that the country will need to adjust its fiscal spending levels: the debate is about how and to what extent this should be done, not whether it should be done. There is also a possibility that with smaller parties potentially holding the balance of power, post-election coalition negotiations will play a role in determining the policies of the next government.