Côte d’Ivoire’s diverse communities offer investment opportunities

A dynamic, diverse and rapidly growing country, Côte d’Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa, with a promising growth outlook and favourable demographic prospects. Côte d’Ivoire has a range of natural resources and varied landscapes inhabited by a wide variety of peoples speaking different indigenous languages and practising distinct faiths. The optimistic economic projections following the Covid-19 pandemic remain counterbalanced by downside risks from global economic instability. Despite Côte d’Ivoire’s complex political climate, the country has come a long way in recovering from a period of civil conflict that ended in 2011. The 2021 National Assembly election was peaceful, and was deemed fair by international observers.

The country made a strong economic turnaround and projections promise a sustained post-pandemic recovery. The country’s economic resilience partly enabled the rebound during the pandemic, with the IMF estimating that real GDP could grow by 6% in 2022, following estimated expansion of 7% in 2021. This lowered growth outlook reflects disruptions to global markets such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a shortage of essential foods and inflation. To reach its economic potential, the country would do well to hedge against disruptions in global demand patterns, potentially through enhanced regional integration; continue on a path of reform; and ensure economic inclusivity and gender equality, such as by increasing female land ownership and boosting manufacturing employment.

Demographics

The country’s population was estimated to be approximately 27.6m in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 2.6%, showing a gradual decrease from the peaks of population growth in the 1970s and 1980s. Reflecting the diversity of the country’s landscapes, the population is unevenly spread, with the majority of residents living in the southern and coastal parts of the country. The coastal city of Abidjan alone is home to a total of 4.8m people, making it the world’s third-largest francophone city after Paris and Kinshasa.

Côte d’Ivoire has a young population and a dynamic demographic outlook, with citizens above the age of 65 representing about 2.9% of the population and an average life expectancy of 58 years. With 55.6% of the population in the working-age bracket and a remaining 41.5% under 15 years of age, the country’s population is expected to expand rapidly. According to World Population Review, the population is set to reach 51.3m in 2050 and almost 90m by 2100.

Geography

Côte d’Ivoire lies between Guinea and Liberia to its west, and Ghana to the east. Its low-lying coastal plains, tropical forests and lagoons open onto the Gulf of Guinea, while its mountains – including the country’s highest peak Mount Nimba – define its north-west. To the north lies the sandier savannah region, beyond which are Mali and Burkina Faso. The northern areas are more arid, and in the winter seasons they are exposed to the hot winds of the Sahara called the harmattan. The winds amplify a dry season that usually begins mid-November and ends in May.

In contrast to the arid north, which features only one rainy season after the winter months, the southern parts of the country experience two rainy seasons: from October to November and from May to July. These are most pronounced on the coast, but the north-western mountains receive more rainfall overall (2000 mm per annum) than the dryer regions. The southern areas usually experience all four seasons, but temperatures stay consistently high even in the coldest months, rarely falling below 22°C in Abidjan. Temperature variations are more noticeable in the north, which experiences a maximum of 36°C in February and March, and lows of 19°C in January and December.

Four rivers flow from the north to the Gulf of Guinea, out of which three finish their course in Côte d’Ivoire, while the Cavalla River ends in Liberia and serves as part of the border between the two countries. The Bandama River is the country’s longest, while the Komoé River runs through a national park of the same name – itself, a UNESCO world heritage site for its ecological value and a case study of an ecosystem transition from the savannah to the forest. Lake Kossou, formed by damming the Bandama River, is the largest in the country.

Language, Ethnicity & Religion

The West African country is home to significant ethnic and linguistic diversity. The Akan, composed of subgroups such as the Baoulé and the Agni, make up one of the biggest ethnic groups in the area. In addition to the Akan, there are over 60 different ethnicities. They can be broadly clustered into Sénoufo and Lobi communities living in the north; the Krou living in the south-west; and Southern and Northern Mandé who live in the west and the north-west of the country, respectively.

Migrants account for almost 10% of the population, although some estimates indicate a foreign worker share approaching 20%. Foreign inhabitants of Côte d’Ivoire have diverse origins ranging from Europe – notably France or Spain – to the Middle East and Asia, notably Vietnam. However, most migrants are from neighbouring African countries, such as Guinea or Burkina Faso. Foreign workers are usually employed in low-skill agricultural jobs, but profiles vary.

The official language of the country is French, yet a multitude of other languages or regional dialects are also spoken. French influence spawned standalone language derivates such as the Français de Moussa, the popular French-derived pidgin dialect, common in the south of the country and Abidjan. A Mandé group tonal trading language called Dyula-Taboussi serves as another lingua franca and boasts millions of speakers.

Historically, Islam descended along Dyula trade routes deep into the territory of modern Côte d’Ivoire. Today, Islam is the second-most-prevalent religion in the country, practised by around 37.5% of the population, with the majority being followers of the Maliki school of Sunni Islam. According to the Pew Research Centre, Christians comprise around 44% of the population, about half of which are Protestant and the other half being Catholic. Over 10% of the country’s inhabitants practice various traditional religions, and around 8.1% professed no affiliation with a particular belief system. A certain degree of syncretism between various religious beliefs typical of such diverse societies can also be observed in some areas of the country.

Natural Resources

Côte d’Ivoire’s offshore oil and natural gas reserves have attracted international attention, with major oil findings announced by the Italian firm Eni off the country’s coast in 2021. According to a statement from the Ministry of Mines, Petroleum and Energy in 2021, the estimates for the discovery were around 1.5bn-2bn barrels of oil and 1.8trn-2.4trn cu feet of gas. The country is already a net energy exporter and features several refineries, but they mainly process heavier imported crude instead of the locally produced variety.

The country is also endowed with ample renewable energy sources, including wind, solar and hydro power. Investment in oil, gas and renewable energy is projected to increase with rising domestic and global demand. The country’s underexplored mining potential has also received increasing attention and investment following the introduction of a new mining code in 2014, with gold remaining the most valuable mining resource in the country. According to the ministry, production grew significantly in recent years to reach 41.9 tonnes in 2021 after registering a 7.6% growth from the previous year. Other notable mineral resources include manganese, nickel, bauxite, diamonds and iron. Production of manganese rose rapidly from 50,000 tonnes in 2011 to some 1.4m tonnes as of 2020.

In terms of agriculture, the country is a top exporter of cacao and cashew nuts. Even though the added value of agriculture, forestry and fishing has dropped from nearly 50% in 1960 to about 21.4% in 2020, unprocessed agriculture exports continue to be a main component of the economy. Coconuts, Brazil nuts, coffee, cocoa, cotton, rubber, palm oil and tropical fruits are notable agricultural exports from the country. Fishing is primarily small-scale and comprises about 3.2% of the agricultural GDP. While the country does feature some rainforest and thus prized tropical timber, the agricultural forest cover is diminishing.

Economy

In 2021 the World Bank and the IMF praised Côte d’Ivoire’s economic performance and pandemic resilience. The institutions noted the country’s remarkable pre-pandemic growth and a GDP rebound of 7% in 2021. The economic indicators imply that Côte d’ Ivoire will remain among West Africa’s top performers and retain its significance as an economic leader in francophone West Africa. Implementing an ambitious economic reform and recovery agenda remains fundamental to continuing prosperity of the country.

Key reforms include enhancing human capital, enabling the growth of the private sector, improving public finance management, building on pandemic-spurred digitalisation trends and empowering business creation in the information and technology sectors. Inflows of foreign direct investment remained subdued in the wake of the pandemic, falling to growth levels of 0.8% in 2020, down from 1.5% in 2019.