Turkey

Amidst this year's positive news on inflation, economic growth, exports and industrial output, certain Turkish officials could perhaps be forgiven a little for allowing themselves a little slack earlier this year when they wondered out loud if the country really needed a new IMF programme. Yet talk of the Fund's imminent departure from Turkish affairs - after several decades of involvement - now seems highly premature. As the Treasury geared up to meet this week's huge domestic debt redemption, it was time to remember that while the recovery may have been underway for some time now, there are still some significant burdens for the country to shoulder - and for which the IMF still seems badly needed.

With the courts taking two steps back - and then one giant leap forward - in the privatisation of Turkey's giant state oil refiner this week, the country's troubled sell-off programme appeared to be stumbling forwards once again. Yet there is still a long way to go if the government is to meet its ambitious privatisation targets, while the inventory of assets still up for sale by the state grows steadily longer.

After over a year of strong gains by Turkey's currency against the US dollar, last week saw business perhaps return to usual on the Istanbul markets, with the Turkish lira (TL) once again on the slide. However, while political uncertainties caused by a row over education reform may have added to analysts' risk calculations, it was largely straightforward financial and economic factors that were decisive in the new forex movements.

When Turkey's finances crashed dramatically back in February 2001, intervention by the IMF was widely seen as having saved the day for the country's battered economy. Yet now - three years and around $18bn later - the Fund may be about to find itself nowhere near as welcome in the corridors of political Ankara.

While market watchers are now looking back at 2003 as something of a non-starter for Turkey's real estate and construction sectors, there are now signs that 2004 could yield some more positive developments. With prices stabilising, the forecast now is for a steady increase in the months ahead, with several areas likely to see more significant growth.

With a good new crop of statistics in this week on the state of the nation's economy, there was also some focusing on the state of the nation's banks. This came in on the back of news of an important merger, and of some more worrying news from a previously welcomed share bid.