Egypt

After several years of strong demand growth, the economic slowdown and investment uncertainty associated with the 2011 revolution and its aftermath have dampened steel consumption in Egypt, leaving potential supply above demand. This gap partly explains the government’s decision to impose import tariffs, the rationale being that Egypt should not need imports if its domestic supply outstrips its own needs. For steel consumers, however, it is not necessarily that simple. They feel they should be free to import cheaper foreign products.

Still in a difficult transition period following its revolution, Egypt’s politics are in a state of flux. One of the most persistent challenges over the past two years has been maintaining currency stability, and the intricately linked issue of the depleting foreign currency reserves. The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE’s) interventions have helped manage the Egyptian pound’s decline during that time but have also put pressure on foreign exchange reserves. However, emergency measures cannot be a long-term substitute for attracting more investment.

The stock market in Egypt got off to a bullish start in 2013, but political deadlock, ongoing unrest across the country, a rising government budget deficit, foreign reserve losses and currency depreciation have all seen the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) struggle in recent weeks. A recent government decision to impose a tax on all EGX transactions is likely to contribute to continued unstable performance.

A combination of new public investment and increased private participation are expected across Egypt’s expanding health care sector as the country prepares to meet rising demand for a broader range of services driven by its growing population.

In the wake of a tragic train accident at the beginning of 2013, Egypt is looking to step up investment in its railways to improve safety, and upgrade infrastructure and rolling stock. Plans for the development of new tracks are also being implemented with international support.

Despite an uncertain political climate and a sluggish economic recovery, the long-term prospects of Egyptian banks are attracting attention from their Gulf counterparts. Two recently announced acquisitions have brought the sector back into the headlines on a positive note, helping offset a recent ratings downgrade.