Exploring the post-pandemic Egyptian economy

Respondents to Oxford Business Group's latest CEO survey in Egypt were largely upbeat about the speed of the country's economic rebound and the broader picture in terms of financing, digitalisation and domestic growth.

Looking back to the first months of the pandemic, apart from March, April and May, the economy has remained buoyant and business has largely been able to continue as usual with high levels of optimism among the business community. The notable exception to this is the tourism and hospitality sector which was hit hard by the pandemic. However, internal tourism is gaining traction due to positive consumer confidence in Egypt and while international travel restrictions remain in place.

Regarding real estate, there is an increasingly collaborative relationship between lenders and the sector, which will boost financing, therefore helping developers expedite their current activities and increase the scope of their projects.

Egypt's banking sector has one of the lowest loan-to-deposit ratios of most developing countries which means there is more space for financing to have an increasing central role in the sector. Above all, this is driven by the fundamental need for projects, given Egypt's growing population. Therefore over the next few years, this trend is only set to continue, as strong demand for projects including the new fourth generation cities remains in tandem with ample liquidity.

Before the pandemic, Egypt was lagging behind in terms of digitalisation, however over the past 12 months it has transformed significantly across many sectors and industries. One of the most noticable is the remote working trend, which has allowed the economy to keep functioning without negatively affecting productivity. Many businesses across the country are maintaining this setup permanently, therefore cutting the need to spend on office space and leaving more funds for other activities.

Looking ahead, Egypt's near and long term economic output is positive, especially when compared to other countries in the region.This is mainly down to its domestic economy, which is the source of most of the growth. International factors, at least in the short term, are set to rebound more slowly than domestic factors as tourism and Suez Canal traffic are both down on pre-pandemic levels.

More broadly, the fact that the country was unique in the MENA region in retaining positive economic growth is an important indicator of its overall resilience, and in light of the factors discussed during the vidcast, the economy's robust nature is likely to continue into the near term.

Oxford Business Group would like to thank Tarek Madany, managing director of Global Appraisal Tech (GAT) and Ahmed Shalaby, president and CEO of Tatweer Misr, for their contributions to the vidcast.