CATEGORY: Roundtables
We can all accept it at this point: we live in uncertain times. To be sure, all countries, whether emerging or developed, experience a certain grade of incertitude – but some do more than others.
Mexico is coexisting with the biggest uncertainty hurricane of its recent history, particularly since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the 23-year-old treaty with the US and Canada, was sentenced to death by US President Donald Trump.
Mexico is on track for a GDP growth rate of below 2.4% for the year 2016 according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit’s growth estimations for 2016 are between 1.7 and 2.5%. Core inflation is at 3%, a figure that fits the Bank of Mexico’s target of between 2 and 4%. In the US, the Federal Reserve announced an increase of +0.25% from to 0.75 in interest rates before the end of 2016, alongside the election of Donald Trump, a top contributing factor influencing the strength of the Mexican peso. These indicators paint a pic- ture of an economy facing macroeconomic risks including the potential devaluation of the peso, a higher inflation, an expected increase in public debt and rising interest rates.
Lima – On July 28 Pedro Pablo Kuczkynski took charge of the presidency of the Republic of Peru, after narrowly defeating Fuerza Popular candidate, Keiko Fujimori.
After years of sluggish economic growth – mainly due to the fall in commodity prices and subsequent slowdown in government-back projects – Kuczynski’s victory generated a wave of optimism among the public, the private sector and the international community. Every change of administration comes with multiple challenges, especially given the current regional and global economic and political turmoil. Additionally, the previous administrations’ failure to achieve many of its goals during its five-year rule resulted in a cooling of the relationship between the public and the private sectors.